The numbers support what our eyes tell us - the annual rainfall for the Nambucca Valley is way below what we normally get.
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In 2019 the total rainfall was 637mm - it is normally 1507mm, more than double. And the highest amount that fell on any day was 50mm, on June 27 ... our highest ever recording was 245mm, that was on November 7, 2009.
There is however a glimmer of hope:
Climatologist Dr Andrew Watson said rainfall outlooks for Nambucca Heads from January to March show a 60 per cent chance of 400mm and a 39 per cent chance of 500 mm.
"This would suggest that on average (50 per cent) the model thinks somewhere in the range of 400-500 mm for the area - it also shows there is only a 36 per cent of getting the average of around 563 mm," Dr Watson said.
"We don't have outlooks that reach as far ahead as winter, however in general terms most climate drivers that brought the heat and dry in 2019 'are' easing, and we expect them to stay at neutral levels into autumn 2020.
"In other words, at the moment there are few signs for either an El Nino or La Nina, or a return to the strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)* pattern that dominated 2019, and hence a more normal weather pattern would be favoured at this stage."
* The IOD's legacy of widespread warm and dry conditions during the second half of 2019 primed the Australian landscape for bushfire weather and the heatwaves this summer (BoM Jan 7, 2020)
The Bureau also notes that while outlooks for drier than average conditions have eased, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies.
And in the meantime:
The weather outlook for the days ahead is for continuing warm to hot weather with temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s. Friday will see winds strengthening near the coast in the afternoon with gusts up to 40kph in some areas.
Conditions will become increasingly unsettled on Saturday with the chance of showers in the afternoon and evening as well as on Sunday, when the temperature will drop to around 23 degrees.